In last December’s edition of The Month we noted that the 2011 census was planned for 27th March 2011. This is not far away now and it will be interesting to see what it reveals about the present population. In the meantime most of what we have to go on is based on the 2001 census.
I’m sometimes asked what the population of a particular parish is now compared with 2001, and sometimes whether the population quoted in the Diocesan Handbook is correct. In both cases it is difficult to give an answer.
In conducting a census the whole area of the United Kingdom is divided up into small areas which are called output areas (OAs). Previously such areas were referred to as enumeration districts. In 2001 the areas formed subdivisions of each of the civic wards used at that time for general and local elections. An area would typically contain 300 to 400 residents and an officer would distribute census forms and then collect them later to pass on for analysis. Constituency and ward boundaries can change but I’m glad that the same OAs as were used for 2001 will again be used for 2011. That’s unless there has been a significant population change, in which case OAs may be split or combined. This minimal change will make analysis much easier.
To obtain census data for any one of our parishes we have to find out which OAs are within its boundaries and then add the data for these together. Whilst this may seem simple, it isn’t. Particularly in urban areas many OAs lie across parish boundaries and ways have to be found to share the data between parishes. It’s generally easier in the rural areas. So once the 2011 census data is available at OA level, there is much work to do before we have the information for parishes and deaneries.
So how is there information from time to time about how much the population has grown in a particular area? Each year the Office for National Statistics (ONS), using available sources of information, makes estimates of the births and deaths in each area and of the inward and outward migration. The changes in population in an area can then be estimated and the results published. This is how the Church of England was able to say that the population of our diocese was 2,703,000 in mid-2001 and 2,840,000 in mid-2008, an increase of 5%.
Of course population growth is not uniform across the diocese, some areas will grow more than others and some may decline. If we take the latest mid-2009 population estimates for the 19 local authority districts which together span the area of the Chelmsford Diocese and compare them with the earlier mid-2001 estimates, it seems that each of our Episcopal Areas has grown: Barking Area by 3.5%; Bradwell Area by 5.5%; and Colchester Area by 9.5%. The ONS population estimates published in June 2010 show in Table 4 that the Colchester Local Authority District has had the eighth highest population growth (13.5%) of all the local authorities in England and Wales for the period mid-2001 to mid-2009.
Canon Don Cardy
22nd Dec 2010