NOW that 91 per cent of the Statistics for Mission forms from parishes for 2010 have arrived, it is possible to give an update on attendance trends. The weekly numbers are collected for October so the pattern of Harvest services can affect things. If parishes fail to complete the forms then estimates are made. One indicator of membership is the size of Electoral Rolls in the years when they are renewed. The table below from Church Statistics gives some of those years. Normally,there is a six-year gap between renewal dates but, exceptionally, in 2007, this was five years:
| 1960 | 98,600 |
| 1978 | 54,500 |
| 1990 | 51,100 |
| 1996 | 50,800 |
| 2002 | 48,600 |
| 2007 | 45,300 |
Clearly the decline in the1960s and 1970s has slowed but remains significant. On renewal there is always a sizeable reduction on the previous year: for example, between 2001and 2002 the numbers reduced by around 7,000,and between 2006 and 2007 by around 5,500. Since 2007 electoral rolls have increased, but not by as much as usual; indeed in the last three years there has been little change. Whilst a normal Sunday may be difficult to define, this graph shows the most recent trends after smoothing out all the bumps, and including Chelmsford Cathedral. It is clear that by this measure the decline has slowed a great deal but not stopped altogether. Over the last five years the average reduction is about one per cent per annum.
The returns for 2010 confirm the pattern first reported three years ago; that the first Sunday in the month has the highest overall adult attendance at 30,900 and the fourth Sunday the lowest at 26,200. The corresponding normal Sunday attendance is reported as 26,000. These figures exclude the Cathedral. It is generally recognised that church members attend less regularly than in times past and the latest estimateis that we have 38,000 members who attend at least once each month. However, the forms for 2010 are collecting information for the first time on Fresh Expressions activity and we look forward to seeing what this shows over the next few years.
Caption: Chair of diocesan budget subcommittee CANONDON CARDY looks at the church attendances